The Value of the Through-Ball

Published at SB Nation.

Shot Matrix III: The Incredible Through-Ball:

The average shot taken in the English Premier League from 2009-2013 has an expected goals value on 8.7%. Arsenal’s shots have an expected goals value of 10.1%. Over a sample of 2693 shots, that is a difference highly unlikely to occur by chance. To put a number of it, there is less than a 1% chance of a club averaging a shot quality that far above league average, on that many shots, by pure random variation. It’s a real tactical effect.

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