Published at SB Nation.
Part 1: On Winning Close Matches (In Which I Predicted Cardiff City’s relegation):
How well a club does in close matches in the first half of the season does not usefully predict how well the club will perform in close matches in the second half.
I’m not saying that winning close matches is “luck.” In general, I think that winning clubs have usually played better than losing clubs. But whatever it is that leads to good performances in close matches, usually it doesn’t carry over as the season progresses. We shouldn’t use points taken from close matches as a good predictor of future points.
Part 2: On Losing Close Matches:
Even these clubs don’t usually do better than 3-2-1 in close matches, and they average more like 2-2-1. Spurs’ 8-4-2 record so far i close matches would be among the best on this table, which is populated mostly by title contenders. I’d guess here that anything over 1.8 or so points per match in games decided by under two goals is probably unsustainable. Even Mourinho’s 2004-2005 Chelsea only took 2.1 points per match in this subset of the season.