The Entirely Predictable Newcastle Turnaround

Published at SB Nation.

Newcastle’s 2014 Comeback Was Predicted By the Stats:

So Newcastle’s turnaround is not unusual. Clubs that massively underperform their expected goals early in the season typically click back into form and start winning matches at a respectable rate. These teams started out the season with only about four points on average, but they averaged about 41 points over the remainder of the season. So if Newcastle follow the averages, they should end up easily safe with a mid-40s points haul.

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