Projections and Expected Goals Methodology

Published at SB Nation.

Michael Caley Premier League Projections

My touchstone throughout the process was “does this make football sense?” I am by training something of a skeptic of regression methods. While obviously I had to do lots of regression to create this system, I tried to make sure I was only running regressions when I understand why and how the factors involved related to the creation of better and worse chances in a football match. This has probably let to some infelicities in the math, but I hope it also means that the logic of the system can be communicated reasonably clearly.

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