Published at SB Nation.
I could only identify an effect with samples of minimum 100 shots, and even then the effect is not overwhelming. (See Nerdery section below for more.) If a player has taken 20 or 30 shots but converted either a lot more or a lot fewer than you’d expect, you’re still best referring to the studies showing no y-to-y correlation in shot conversion. Probably it’s been a fluke. There’s a possibility that it isn’t, but the only good way to identify that statistically is with several seasons of data. So we need to be very careful about concluding that a player really has a significant shooting skill.
When you aggregate data and collect groups of similar players, there emerges a clear tendency of higher-volume shooters and more advanced players to finish their chances more efficiently. I think this is a selection effect. Football managers recognize which of their players have the best striking skills and arrange tactics to get those players the most chances.